Odds shorten for PM Starmer to remain in office by August 31

· market re-priced ·August 31

Briefing

The odds of Keir Starmer remaining as Prime Minister by August 31 have shortened from ~61% to ~68%, a 7 percentage point increase, according to Polymarket prediction markets.

The shift in odds suggests growing confidence that Starmer will still be PM at the end of August, though the chances of his departure before then remain high at ~32%.