The Prime Minister's implied resignation date has shifted from 21 July 2026 to 23 July 2026, a delay of 3 days, according to the latest Polymarket data.
This change suggests the probability of Keir Starmer remaining as PM on 23 July 2026 has increased to ~86%, up from the previous estimate of his resignation by that date.
The shift in the expected resignation timeline comes as Starmer's position as Labour leader continues to be scrutinised by his own party.