PM Starmer's resignation date moves 1 day earlier to 21 Jul 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been moved 1 day earlier, from 22 July 2026 to 21 July 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

This shift in the implied resignation date comes as the political landscape continues to evolve around the leadership of PM Keir Starmer. Analysts are closely watching the ~86% chance of Starmer stepping down by the new date.