The Prime Minister's resignation is now expected by 21 July 2026, six days earlier than previously forecast, according to the latest Polymarket data. The shift in the implied resignation date comes amid ongoing political uncertainty around Keir Starmer's leadership.
Polymarket traders now estimate an ~86% chance that Starmer will have announced his resignation as Prime Minister by the new date of 21 July 2026, up from the previous forecast of 27 July 2026.