PM Starmer's resignation now expected by 22 Aug, 3 days earlier

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now expected to announce his resignation by 22 August 2026, according to the latest market predictions. This is 3 days earlier than the previous forecast of 24 August.

The shift in the expected resignation date comes as traders on the Polymarket platform adjust their bets, with the market now pricing in an ~86% chance of Starmer stepping down as PM before the end of August.