A £1,114 Polymarket bet has been placed on Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office on July 31. The trade implies around a ~37% chance that Starmer will still be PM on that date.
The large trade by user 'Ready-Progression' suggests the market sees a significant chance of Starmer surviving in Number 10 beyond the end of July. However, the implied probability also indicates a majority expectation of Starmer's exit before that point.