The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has been brought forward by 2 days, according to the latest Polymarket data. The resignation is now anticipated to be announced by 25 Aug 2026, rather than the previous date of 26 Aug 2026.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the probability of Starmer remaining as PM past that date has fallen to ~86%, down from the previous ~88% chance. Polymarket traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of Starmer's departure by the new earlier date.