PM Starmer's resignation date moves £1k earlier to 21 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

A Polymarket contract tracking the date of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation has shifted its expiry £1,000 earlier, from 22 August 2026 to 21 August 2026.

The change suggests the market now sees an ~86% chance Starmer will have resigned as PM by 21 August 2026, rather than the previous ~86% probability of him leaving by 22 August.

This comes amid ongoing speculation about Starmer's political future, though no official announcement has been made.