A large £2,900 bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by June 30, according to the market data. The bet implies around a 26% chance that Starmer will depart before that date.
The market suggests there is a higher probability that Starmer will remain as PM through the end of June, despite ongoing speculation about his future. Polymarket traders are putting serious money behind the view that he will hold on to power in the coming months.