The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been moved forward by 1 day, from 29 July 2026 to 28 July 2026, according to Polymarket data. The implied probability of Starmer resigning by the new date is ~86%.
The shift comes as Starmer's position as PM faces growing pressure, with the Labour leader battling to retain the confidence of his party. The new timeline suggests his tenure may be drawing to a close sooner than previously anticipated.